Here are the scenarios:
1. China or the Philippines seize a disputed island.
2. Intra-Korea war.
3. China-Japan naval skirmish escalates.
4. China or India occupies disputed territory.
5. Southeast Asia conflict escalates.
A China-Taiwan conflict is not on the list.
Everybody has to walk on eggshells around China, or the whole region is going to blow up. This is really a sign that the region is ready to collapse, or it has reached a pre-collapse state.
If you are able to recognize that you are in a pre-collapse state, then your outcome will be better if you can choose the time and place to start the actual collapse. This like shooting a gun in order to start a snow avalanche. You know the collapse is coming, so why let it happen at some random time?
China’s outcome will be better if it chooses the time and place to start a war. What this means is that you should worry more about a calculated move to war rather than an accident that escalates. Obviously, this is contrary to the article’s message and most experts.
Look at how World War I started when everyone was saying that it couldn’t happen due to economic interdependence, and how the US got sucked into World War II. These were calculated moves.
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