The Next Stage of the European Debt Crisis; Towards Global Financial Collapse?
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Those who believe the European crisis is over are mistaken. The dislocation will continue as their economies slow and political, social and economic events converge into further crisis. The most glaring problem is the banks only taking a 50% loss on Greek bonds. The loss should have been 75% or even 80%. There is absolutely no way Greece can overcome that burden in a slowing European economy and an enraged population. They are still striking and demonstrating and they will continue even under a new government.
Some of the best economists in the world have been saying for almost as long as we have been saying that the weaker and smaller countries have to leave the euro at least temporarily. In our eyes that really means permanently. If Italy falls out it will take France with it and the euro edifice will fall. Very quickly it will be found that Greece cannot and will not recover. It is one thing to set recovery in motion in good times, but it is another to attempt to do so under austerity. These politicians in Europe have been self-serving. They are quickly going to find what they have done is not going to work. Greece should have never been saved, as we said from the beginning. They will need more and more money just to exist and you cannot have perpetual funding. Then you have the overriding social factor. It is simply impossible and once Greece goes, the other 5 will have to cut loose as well. Again, it will be called temporary, but their exists will be permanent. It simply cannot be any other way. Political hot air is not going to change anything. We have no details and bankers who refuse to face the music, and what is attempted to be achieved is impossible.
The concept of a tighter union with a new constitution won’t work either. We can go back to 1991 when these issues came forth and we stated the Europeans are doing this backwards. You need a strong constitution first, only nations involved that can meet the criteria of public debt of 3% GDP. Smaller nations cannot be allowed to falsify their balance sheets and above all you cannot use one interest rate for all. Just about everything that has been done has been done incorrectly. Unfortunately, the US and world economy hang in the balance as well. This euro, European and UK problem is not going to go away. By February it will again be front page news. There is an 80% chance that Greece will leave the euro in the next six months.
If Ireland and Portugal do not receive equal treatment, followed by Belgium, Spain and Italy, then they will all be forced to leave the euro. If you think for one minute that these nations can stand more than a year or two of austerity you are mistaken. The whole approach is wrong. They should all be allowed to leave the euro. The only reason Greece has been temporarily saved is to keep Greece in the euro. These one-worlders cannot bear to see their dream of world government fail. It has already failed. Do you really think Germans are going to give up their sovereignty? Wait for the next German election. You are going to see a house cleaning in the Bundestag that will be staggering. The German people are outraged at what these politicians have done to them. If anything the move in the EU’s strongest economy will be away from further consolidation, not toward it.
The magic number to keep the euro from collapsing over the next two years is $6 trillion that solvent European countries do not have, and using derivatives in place of cash is a prescription for disaster. Debt may be addressed, but the core economic and financial problems that were responsible for these problems are still not being addressed. That is a glaring lack of economic progress. Where is the capital needed for growth? Countries in the EU are going to have to increase money and credit and suffer the incumbent inflation; that is if they can even raise those funds and rollover old debt. Either that or China will lend $3 to $500 billion and we don’t think they are willing to do that. If China prints the money to lend, the value of the yuan will fall, the Chinese will take more market share and there will be more inflation. Their goods sold to Europe, the US and elsewhere will rise in cost as well. The Chinese will have to use cash euros or sell euro bonds. Such moves could be really upsetting to China. If aid comes it will be in much smaller amounts.
This past week the swaps association said the failure on 50% of Greek debt does not constitute failure, because it was voluntary, so the NYC legacy banks do not have to pay up on their derivative bet. That could all change, because Fitch says it does constitute default. We will now have to await the decisions of S&P and Moody’s.
What Europe has done is pull a page from US bailouts, which reduce debt starting in a few years, which would extend over 10 or 20 years. It reminds us of the two sets of books banks are currently keeping. They intend to write off bad debt over 50 years, like it really didn’t exist. This plan allows further current increases in debt over the short term. That is no solution at all. Again, it only throws the debt and service into a future that could include deflationary depression. Recovery is not a given.
Fitch has really opened a large can of worms in calling a 50% debt default a payable derivative event. We are talking about hundreds of billions of CD’s, credit default swaps OTC derivatives, which just happens to be an unregulated market. Our view is Fitch is correct and the ISDA, the derivatives information agency is wrong. What isn’t made an issue of is that banks have been asked to raise $150 billion they are offside on this issue. We projected this number long ago. The official number is $3.7 billion, which is laughable. About a month ago the players admitted to $75 billion, so we are making progress toward truth and reality. We wonder what the French bankers are saying, who bought the insurance? If NYC banks do not pay off the ECB will have to create the $150 billion and lend it to the banks in France, so they can survive. Could this be a renege? We think so, and that would ultimately allow citizens of the EU to pay the debt. These bankers are crafty buggers they are.
A D V E R T I S E M E N T
We also question why banks are writing off 50% of their debt and the sovereigns are not. Isn’t this strange? Why are they not writing off 50%? Could it be that if they did they would be insolvent? Could it be to deceive their taxpaying citizens and pop the question several years from now? Could this be they are just trying to extend the timeline into the future? Time has a way of revealing everything. Incidentally, none of that Greek debt will probably ever be paid off. It should also be noted that of the $140 billion lent by the IMF, US taxpayers are on the hook for about 30%, or $42 billion. We are sure that will make Americans very happy.
The difference between $516 billion allocated by EU members, half of which comes from Germany, and $1.4 trillion will come from the sale of bonds by the EFSF, the European Financial Stabilization Fund. The question is who is going to buy this tranche of some $900 billion in bonds? Nations will receive greater taxes from a phantom recovery and buy the bonds. How can this be when those economies barely have even GDP growth? All this in the midst of austerity. We do not get it. We must be missing something. Does Italy really believe that raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 is going to bring any real immediate relief? As you can see the case is terminal.
The whole plan is absurd, stupid and unworkable. These problems are going to last for years as Europe, the UK and US wallow in negative growth and eventually in deflationary depression.
Greece will collapse; it is only a question of when. The ECB will continue to create money and credit, just as the US and UK are doing.
It won’t take long for investors to figure out they have been bamboozled again. They will flee stock markets probably just after the Fed’s latest QE 3 is announced. Some will buy US Treasuries and lose about 10% of their purchasing power annually. Some will flee to commodities and many will use the flight to quality to purchase gold and silver coins, bullion and shares. Modes of investments are going to change dramatically, so you had best participate, or you may end up losing most of your wealth.
What you are witnessing is financial chicanery at its best. Wait until the citizens of Europe discover they are going to have to pay all these bills, just so they can be enslaved in a one-world government. They are not going to be happy.
We always tend to be ahead of the curve and the crowd. This time the time frame for discovery may be very short, because once investors understand what we have written here they will want to get out. Gold, silver and commodities will rise for different reasons, along with the flight to quality. Incidentally, this time the gold and silver mining shares will soar.
Reflecting back on our comments the second Greek bailout does not solve the EMU’s fundamental problem, which is the 30% competitiveness gap between the northern and southern countries and Germany’s giant-EMU trade surplus at the expense of the south. Unless a way can be found to rectify that there cannot be a recovery. The south has been forced into austerity, which limits their chances of being competitive. As we pointed out over and over again the end product will be a deflationary spiral and eventually deflationary depression. What the IMF and EU members are imposing on the six countries is very destructive.
A fiscal union would perhaps work, but that means the end of individual country sovereignty, which would eventually lead to authoritarianism, which would not like to see. The entire union is unnatural and should be ended. It has been a failure and just leave it at that.
All this program is going to do is buy time. It is not a long-term solution. Current debt holders are going to be incensed, as they will be forced in before sovereigns, but will banks really take a 50% haircut? We don’t really know. Is this really a fig leaf, a wholly inadequate alternative to the ECB, which cannot provide endless liquidity?
This rescue effort is really too dependent on high-risk deals, such as what caused this crisis. Four times leverage is outrageous. In the end the European public could get caught holding the bag.
At the same time we are seeing monetary contraction in Portugal, which mirrors that of Greece as it spiraled out of control. Bank deposits are off 21% over the past six months and that could well be a precursor of a weak economy and monetary trouble.
Another question that arises is due to the treatment accorded to NYC legacy, money center banks. Will those using credit default swaps continue to do so. There is a default and because it was voluntary the derivative writers do not have to pay off. Give us a break. It looks like contract law no longer exists.
In very late breaking news we find something we warned about is happening. The German High Court, the Bundesgerichtshof, has issued an express order that the nine-member committee dealing with dispersing the rescue funds is not allowed to do so. The plug has been pulled on the EU and German politicians on money releases. If the Germans and the EU are lucky they’ll have a constitutional decision by Christmas. We predicted this would happen.
Uncertainty revolves around the deal reached with Greek bondholders to face a 50% haircut on the face value of their bonds. This has not been negotiated as yet.
At the same time France needs to raise $11.2 billion to keep its AAA rating. Sarkozy says 2012 GDP growth will be about 1%, about the same as Germany, but no one mentions it would be -2% with inflation.
Switzerland’s State Secretariat for International Financial Matters said the Swiss were interested in investing in a special investment vehicle proposed by the euro zone bailout fund, but we see a real fight brewing. The Swiss People’s Party, which was against franc devaluation and the sale of Swiss gold, will be after this move by the Swiss government. They do not want closer ties to the EU.
This past summer we warned that European banks would have to increase their reserve position to 9%, because both the BIS and IMF said it was absolutely necessary. You might call the EU’s laxity of not forcing Greece to implement its austerity agreement as part of a socialist mindset. There was no way to move Greece into line. For not living up to their commitment they could have cut Greece off, because then they would default and leave the euro. Thus, they continued to fund Greece. The truth is they have to do so irrespective of what Greece does or doesn’t do.
The heart of the problem was banking incompetence followed by sovereign stupidity. Banks and solvent sovereigns never should have made the loans in the first place. All the greedy bankers, politicians and bureaucrats could think of was the euro zone and the euro being the template for one-world government. The interconnectivity of banks within nations with banks of other nations is the lynchpin that will eventually take all of them down. It’s caused by central control such as that embodied in the European Central Bank. The bottom line is if a state like Greece, partially defaults, then the banks within Greece default as well because these banks are holding large amounts of federal bonds and loans. Thus, the edifice collapses. This relationship exists all over Europe and as we are seeing six countries are in trouble and if the European economy continues to slip into recession or depression other countries will join the six. In addition in many countries supervision is all but non-existent. A perfect example of such a relationship was with France, Belgium, and the Dexia bank, which they created. As a result the taxpayers of Belgium and France have acquired all the bad assets of Dexia.
Adding to such problems is that usually half of the debt of any country is held by foreign banks and sovereigns, which means failure becomes contagion. France’s holding of 8.5% of GDP of debt from these six countries will eventually cause France to lose its AAA rating. If that is the case we venture to ask how can France be party to a commitment to bail out Greece or anyone else? They simply cannot and they are the number 2 player. You would think French citizens would elect someone who was not involved in such stupidities, such as Marine LePen of the National Party. The banks and business interests, such as the Rothschilds, couldn’t have that – could they? If France financially fails we could see 1789 all over again. This sovereign debt is widely held by other nations including the US, UK and Japan. European banks have controlled European society for a long, long time and they are the catalyst for the new world order.
We hear over and over again there will be recovery, we will grow our way out of it. That won’t be possible for Europe, the UK and the US. The number of young people who do the largest part of consumer spending in their 20s and 30s today have a hard time making ends meet, never mind spending. On top of that many are unemployed and may be for some time to come. If you have noticed unemployment has risen or stayed the same in the regions we have spoken of. Accumulation has only occurred among the upper-middle class and the wealthy. This also means borrowing has fallen and the ability to access loans and capital are limited, because so many prime age borrowers do not qualify.
One of the reasons Germany does as well as it does is because they have an abundancy of inexpensive capital available for loans and credit, which allows expansion, creates jobs and brings profits. The cost of labor is low or in the form of growing productivity and people pay their bills.
One interest rate fits all became a disaster. The weak participants borrowed at 4% instead of 8% and the result was an orgy of spending that ended up in today’s insolvencies. We said 12 years ago this would destroy the euro zone and it has. These low rates also allowed a massive influx of imports into the six problem countries, which caused major balance of trade deficits. This also brought about borrowing in foreign currencies, which turned into a nightmare, particularly in Eastern Europe.
European banking and politics are very closely intertwined. In other words the banks overtly run these countries. The same is true in the UK, but in the US it has been subtler due to ignorance of how the banking system works and that has been deliberate. In Europe the stress test used 5% as a guideline, instead of the normal 10%. This shows you the power and control banking has over EU government making the margin for error extremely thin. Considering the exposure cash reserves were increased to 9%. This means capital has to be raised and that is not easy in today’s recessionary environment. Two-thirds of European banks are currently under 9%. The worst exposed are RBS, Deutsche Bank, Unicredit, Bank Paribas, Barclays and Societ General. Hundreds of billions of euros are needed and the question is where will they come from? In addition how many banks are shuffling assets between trading, deposit, and banking sectors, such as Dexia had been doing until they had to be taken over by the French and Belgium governments? The banks need $270 billion that is readily available. If funds are not available then that means governments will have to supply the capital from out of thin air, which is very inflationary.
The EFSF, the European Financial Stability Facility, which was set up to aid Greece, Ireland and Portugal, now aids banks and European governments, such as the Fed does. An EFSF if allowed to dispense $1.4 trillion based on a $900 billion derivative structure would take months to move into action. Then there is the question will the German High court allow leveraging. We do not think so. The Court had already told the Bundestage you cannot do that, but they did it anyway.
As we can say is stay tuned for the next episode in this saga. It could end up taking down the entire world’s financial system.
Countdown to London’s
War of Armageddon
Special to EIR
[PDF version of this article]
Nov. 8—With the imminent release of a new report on Iran’s nuclear program from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the propaganda for a preemptive attack on Iran escalated this week to unprecedented levels of lies and provocation. This propaganda barrage is intended to bring the world to the brink of a world war, that will rapidly lead to the launching of thermonuclear weapons.
While senior U.S. intelligence officials familiar with the IAEA’s pending report confirm to EIR that there is no Iranian nuclear bomb, and no near-term prospect of Iran building one, the disinformation campaign has reached such a frenzied peak that it will take an extraordinary intervention to avoid an Israeli, or combined Israeli/Anglo-American attack on Iran that will be the opening salvo of World War III.
The architects of this looming war are out to provoke mass destruction and genocide, targeting the entirety of Eurasia and beyond. While the propaganda for war has all the earmarks of the earlier “sexed up” lies about Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction arsenal, which provided the pretext for the March 2003 invasion, the intent behind the targeting of Iran and Syria today goes far beyond anything that Tony Blair, George W. Bush, or even Dick Cheney envisioned as war objectives against Iraq.
The intent, this time around, is to provoke a genocidal world war, targeted at the major population centers of Eurasia—China and India—as well as Russia. There are no limited objectives. The reason for this, is that the entire trans-Atlantic centered British Imperial system of finance and political power is in a state of final disintegration. As events of recent weeks make clear to anyone who wishes to see, the entire European and North American financial system has been turned into one big hyperinflationary bubble that cannot be sustained. As the result of this speculative bubble, the real economies of Europe and the Americas have been gutted. The combined financial hyperinflation and physical-economic breakdown, perfectly forecasted by Lyndon LaRouche in his “Triple Curve” presentation before a Vatican audience more than a decade ago, is now playing out at breakneck speed.
Whether the immediate trigger for a total meltdown of the trans-Atlantic banking system is a Greek default, or an Italian default, or the collapse of a major Wall Street bank, is of little consequence. The trans-Atlantic region is doomed, in the very near term. Nothing within the framework of the current British Imperial System can avert the inevitable collapse. The time frame for this disintegration is measured in days, weeks, or months.
This is decidedly not the situation in the Eurasia-Pacific region of the globe, where China and India, with a combined population of more than 2.5 billion, are continuing to grow, despite the disruption of European and American export markets since the 2007-2008 beginning of the bursting of the Western speculative bubble. Russia is no longer in the state of collapse it was during the 1990s decade of British-led looting under Gorbachov and Yeltsin.
The prospects for collaboration among the leading Eurasian powers—Russia, China, and India—were on full display this week in St. Petersburg, Russia, where the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) focused on greater economic integration of the Eurasian region, through high-speed transportation projects, joint energy development, other big regional infrastructure projects, and vastly expanded trade. The SCO meeting was attended by high-level delegations from Iran, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Iran, India and Pakistan have formally applied for SCO membership; and Afghanistan has applied for formal observer status. The SCO represents the potential core of a Eurasia-Pacific Prosperity Zone, encompassing a sizeable majority of the world’s population.
The potential for continued economic growth in this vast region is something that the British oligarchy simply cannot accept—particularly given the end-game disintegration of the trans-Atlantic economies. The British, therefore, are going for war in Eurasia. The war is not over political disputes, nuclear weapons, or raw materials control: In the long-standing British tradition of genocide, the war is aimed at killing off as many people as possible. The endgame is the vast reduction of the human race to a fraction of the current 7 billion people. In this war of genocide there are no winners or losers—just a vast body count.
Prince Philip Calls for Genocide
The idea that the British are pursuing a course of mass genocide, orders of magnitude beyond the worst crimes of Hitler and the Nazis, should come as no surprise. Prince Philip, the Royal Consort and the founder, along with World War II-era Nazi Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands, of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), has advocated massive population reduction for decades. He has called for an 80% reduction in the human population.
Philip is the head of a worldwide movement promoting mass-extermination of the populations of Asia and Africa in particular. He counts among his disciples the German John Schellnhuber, who demands a reduction of world population to below 1 billion people, and John Holdren, President Obama’s science advisor and an avowed radical Malthusian.
The option for such a war of genocide was put in place with the 2008 election of Obama as U.S. President. Obama was selected by the British because of his homicidal psychosis. Obama is, as LaRouche warned publicly on April 11, 2009, a Nero, who will kill and kill again, to feed his insatiable psychotic appetite for power. The cold-blooded execution of deposed Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi and members of his family, ordered from the White House, is typical of Obama’s psychotic rage that has now fully surfaced. The recent extrajudicial assassinations of three American citizens by drone attacks in Yemen, including the murder of a 16-year-old boy, were another manifestation of Obama’s Nero complex.
Obama, so long as he remains in office, will be a highly controlled asset of the British oligarchy, which is the actual author of the genocide, now in store for humanity, if the planned Iran attack is permitted to take place.
Well-placed U.S. military and intelligence officials have only recently begun to realize that their vocal and intense opposition to any military action against Iran has fallen on deaf ears at the White House. Both the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) and the CIA have weighed in forcefully against any military action against Iran—precisely because it would be a certain trigger for larger war. Even Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta was dispatched to Tel Aviv, soon after he transferred from the CIA to the Pentagon in July, to deliver an unambiguous warning to Israel against a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom. Panetta’s warnings, earlier delivered by former JCS chairman Adm. Mike Mullen, were echoed in a more recent flurry of anti-war statements from top Israeli military and intelligence veterans, including two former Mossad directors, Efraim Halevy and Meir Dagan.
There is no immediate nuclear weapons threat coming from Iran, and even if Iran were to be able to build a single crude nuclear weapon, they do not have a reliable delivery system, and won’t have it for years to come.
The absolute irrationality of the current race to war against Iran, is the clearest indicator that something far different is at stake.
From Regional War to World War
In an interview to be published next week in EIR, Gen. Joseph Hoar (USMC-ret.), the former Commander-in-Chief of the Central Command (CENTCOM), explains that any attack on Iran will immediately trigger asymmetric retaliation by the Islamic Republic against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. Among the immediate targets will be the oil fields, refineries, and desalination facilities in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, and similar targets in the islands of the Persian Gulf, the U.A.E., Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait.
Whether the United States participates in the opening strikes against Iranian targets, or the initial attack comes exclusively from Israel, it is Iranian military doctrine to strike directly against the easy targets in the immediate vicinity—the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). This means that the United States, under any circumstances, will be drawn into the conflict in the opening hours, due to long-standing treaty agreements with the GCC.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in statements issued this week from Moscow, warned, in the strongest possible language, against any aggression against Iran. Numerous international publications, from Azerbaijan to Iran to Thailand, have warned that an attack on Iran will rapidly draw Russia into the conflict, given Russian strategic interests there, and the presence of Russian scientists at the Bushehr nuclear reactor.
An Israeli or other attack on Syria would also draw the Russians in. And China, with its dependence on energy and raw materials from the Persian Gulf region and adjacent parts of Africa, would see itself as a primary target of any such Gulf war, and would respond accordingly. Already, the Chinese have concluded that the NATO war in Libya was aimed, in significant measure, at China, which had vast investments in Libya, which have now been grabbed by Britain and France—with full U.S. backing.
A senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, recently told EIR that
“war-avoidance is the highest priority for the U.S. national security institutions.” It is the near-unanimous consensus of the entire U.S. intelligence community that any world war would guarantee the exchange of nuclear weapons, and that this would mean the extinction of mankind. War, therefore, “is impossible.”
For the British, these issues are now existential, due to the onrushing disintegration of the financial and monetary underpinnings of the British Imperial System. This oligarchy is committed to war, and so long as their marcher-lord puppets remain in power in Washington and Tel Aviv, they have the capacity to unleash this Armageddon.
There is a war-avoidance option. Obama must be removed from office, through Constitutional means that are readily available (see “Toward a Bill of Impeachment Of Barack Hussein Obama,” p. 37), or by the 25th Amendment.
In 1973, leading Republicans in the U.S. Senate, led by Sen. Howard Baker (R-Tenn.), realized that it was their responsibility to remove Richard Nixon from office. Baker led a delegation to see Nixon, and informed him that he would be impeached by an overwhelming bipartisan majority in the Senate—unless he resigned. There are credible reports that Vice President Gerald Ford was prepared to invoke the 25th Amendment, if Nixon refused to resign.
The circumstances surrounding the Nixon resignation were relatively benign compared to the threat of global genocide now confronting the United States and the world. The question on the table for Democrats is whether they possess the moral fitness to survive. If the answer is “yes,” they will move to bring down Obama now—before the Guns of November are unleashed and it is too late.