孫哲分析,去年APEC(亞太經濟合作會議)談亞太局勢的時候,大國直接衝突的影子沒那麼明顯,但今年中美直接走到檯面上。

北京學者:中美關係進入新階段

中央社/ 2011/11/20

(中央社台北20日電)香港明報今天報導,大陸的中國國際關係學院國際政治系學者時殷弘指出,美國最近關於亞太地區的舉動,制衡中國大陸的目的「太明顯了」,中美關係正進入「非常重要的新階段」。

時殷弘表示,正如美國媒體報導,美國在經濟、戰略全面圍堵中國大陸。

報導同時引述北京清華大學國際問題研究所教授孫哲說,美國「重返亞洲」戰略「從口號到外交行動,相當迅速有效」,中美關係今後會有很大的改變。

孫哲分析,去年APEC(亞太經濟合作會議)談亞太局勢的時候,大國直接衝突的影子沒那麼明顯,但今年中美直接走到檯面上。

孫哲認為,美國重返亞太是想穩定亞太,但此舉卻有可能使各方誤判,令美國事與願違。

面對美國在亞太地區表現的強勢,孫哲指出,中國大陸能否巧妙地與美國周旋,掌握好今後的戰略機遇期,是個挑戰。

大陸方面曾經提出,21世紀前20年是大陸發展重要的戰略機遇期。

至於大陸國務院總理溫家寶19日在東亞峰會關於南海問題談話,時殷弘認為,溫家寶實屬「被迫強硬」。

在印尼峇里島舉行的第6屆東亞峰會上,溫家寶就南海問題表示,「我本來不想說這個問題,但一些國家領導人點到中國,來而不往非禮也,我願重申一下中方的立場。」

溫家寶指出,南海爭議應由直接有關的主權國家透過友好協商和談判、以和平方式解決。

之前大陸外交部發言人劉為民曾公開表示,南海問題並不在東亞峰會的議程當中,中方認為南海問題也不應該成為會議的議題。

最近美國頻頻表示高度重視亞太地區,美國總統歐巴馬說,亞太地區「是個對我們具有高度戰略重要性的地區,我們將須確定,我們能達成在亞太地區的領導目標。」國務卿希拉蕊.柯林頓則宣示,21世紀是「美國的太平洋世紀」。1001120

港媒:北京對美 應鬥而不破

中央社/ 2011/11/20

(中央社台北20日電)對美國近來在亞太地區的強勢作為,中國大陸應如何因應?香港明報今天在社評中指出,北京應「鬥而不破」、「務實主義當頭」。

這篇社評指出,美國最近一段時期接二連三的動作,例如總統歐巴馬在APEC(亞太經濟合作會議)峰會有關人民幣的講話、推動跨太平洋夥伴協議及駐軍澳大利亞,「目的只有一個﹕中國」。

但美國的思路不純粹只是霸主心態,而是牽涉到重大戰略利益及先發制人的打算;其策略則以經濟為包裝,內含政治考量,並以強大軍力為後盾,「軟中帶硬,不能隨便視之。」

社評分析,假如大陸因美國的強勢而收縮在東南亞的經濟參與,將會背上「中國無心成為東南亞一員」的指摘;但若以強硬手段介入東南亞,「恐華症」又可能全面爆發,正中美國下懷。

社評因而認為,大陸必須小心務實,關鍵在「鬥而不破」,「鬥而不破的核心是務實主義當頭」,以免發生更惡劣後果。

社評指出,由於大陸與東南亞國家過去30年來已發展出相當的關係,美國縱然來勢洶洶,也不能一時三刻把這些關係一撕即破。大陸必須「繼續以東南亞地區的總體繁榮為目標,讓區內國家都能共享中國經濟崛起後的共同果實」;「對美日鬥而不破,對東南亞諸國堅持共享互榮,這才是長期策略。」1001120

China Counters U.S. Concerns on Sea Trade as Wen Meets Obama – Businessweek

Posted by Matt in November 20th, 2011 Subscribe to Daily Updates

China proposed a maritime cooperation fund and said it has no interest in impeding trade as it counters moves by the U.S. and the Philippines to address territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

“China believes that freedom of navigation has not been a factor in the South China Sea,” Liu said at the conclusion of the 18-country East Asia Summit, where U.S. President Barack Obama raised maritime security issues. “With the rapid development of economies in China and East Asian countries, the country and region attach more importance to freedom of navigation than anybody else.”

China Counters U.S. Concerns on Sea Trade as Wen Meets Obama – Businessweek

Trade is in fact being hindered by China. China is hindering other countries in the exploration for gas and oil in their exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea. Obviously these countries will seek to trade these energy resources, but China won’t allow their extraction.

Freedom of navigation is also being hindered by China. China is harassing vessels it deems inappropriately transiting the South China Sea – like oil exploration ships and US intelligence ships. China in effect gets to decide what “freedom of navigation” means. If it can decide one thing today, then it can decide another for tomorrow.

Obama says China needs to play by the “rules” – established international rules. China says it doesn’t because the rules are set by other nations.Of course the rules are set by other nations. It’s not like they come out of thin air. Anyway, one shouldn’t be shocked if escalating conflict ensues.

Personally, when I see the behavior of China I visualize a bull in the China closet who is completely unaware of its behavior. From terrifying neighboring countries to missiles across from Taiwan, China talks peace buts acts like its ready for anything but peace. Why do most of its neighbors suddenly want the US closer? Why does Australia want the US closer? Why does Japan want the US closer?

Why is everybody afraid of China?

Because if you get out of line you will be stepped on.

Historically, when a rising power comes into conflict with empire then war ensues. Most of the time anyway. It’s almost certain that China will come into conflict with America. I can see that China is fed up with America. China will not hold itself back much longer.

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For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
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