Nuclear war on the horizon

  • Nuclear war on the horizon

05.12.2011 21:54

Nuclear war on the horizon. 46054.jpegIt might be the lazy way, to just sit and accept the utter bilge and lies coming from the mainstream western media when they report on events in Syria and Iran. But is it worth it? Would those who accept these lies still think it’s worth it, not to look for the truth, if they realize that we are heading straight for a third world war?

There comes a point in time, a point from which there is no return. Someone is going to get fed up and take that step, ignite that spark, that will lead to the beginning of another world war. This world is as close to world war as it was during the Cuban Missle Crisis.

Thirteen days in October 1962, the world looked on as Nikita Khrushchev and John Kennedy both, thankfully, tried to avoid a collision course that would set off a nuclear war between the two superpowers.

While conducting a spying mission on the Island of Cuba, the U2 aircraft discovered that missiles had been installed on the island to prevent the threat of any future invasion.

Kennedy decided to impose a naval blockade, or a ring of ships, around Cuba. The aim of this “quarantine,” as he called it, was to prevent the Soviet Union from bringing in more military supplies. He demanded the removal of the missiles already there and the destruction of the sites.

On October 22, President Kennedy spoke to his countrymen about the crisis in a televised address. Eye to eye, furious communications later, finally an agreement was made and both sides were able to stand down.

The missiles in Cuba would be removed, as would those in Turkey, and a promise to leave Cuba alone…demanded by Khrushchev. Later, movement towards peace and cooperation included the establishment of a teletype “Hotline” between the Kremlin and the White House and the signing of the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty on July 25, 1963.

Iran’s military said on Sunday it had shot down a U.S. reconnaissance drone aircraft in eastern Iran, a military source told state television. What was this drone doing over Iranian territory?

A potential conflagration between the two superpowers is reaching frightening levels in the Mediterranean with vessels of both the US and Russia maneuvering into confrontational positions.

The United States and its European allies have run roughshod over international law, rendering it null and void. The bloody aggression and genocidal campaign against Libya were just a beginning of the end.

The Yugoslavia campaign of lies and false accusations was repeated once again, while rubber stamp robots incorporated, known as the UN, gave the coalition of barbaric savages their cover of legitimacy with UN Resolutions 1970 and 1973, which were also repeatedly run over, violated and trashed as they crept toward total war and invasion rather than the established no-fly zone and no boots on the ground.

Infamous were the lies about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and no less ridiculous were the claims that the Gaddafi government was “killing its own people.” Now they say the same about Syria and accuse Iran of trying to use nuclear energy to make nuclear weapons.

In a court of law, if the judge catches you lying even once, he will totally disregard your case because you were caught in a lie. All it takes is just one lie. You have destroyed your credibility totally and forever in his eyes.

If I find out you’ve lied to me once, from that time forward you will have to prove you’re not lying again when you make claims, otherwise I have no reason to not think you are not just lying again.

So, too, any thinking person cannot take what the U.S. and Europeans say or claim as remotely even credible, along with their Israeli friends. In all cases, they have to prove they are not lying because all they ever do is lie.

It’s more a case of these entities projecting their own evil intentions onto their marked, targeted victims.

So people out there, don’t accept what they say at face value, not from PROVEN LIARS.

Iran, one of their next targets of choice, does not constitute a threat to global security, or a threat to the security of Israel. Iran hasn’t done anything aggressive in over 250 years…and they have repeatedly allowed inspections beyond the call of reason and assured others that they have no intention of making nuclear weapons.

In Syria, so many lies already coming fast and furiously…inventing incidents that never happened. The people at the locations where several incidents were alleged to occur say no such thing ever happened.

Why is the west, as in the case of Libya, sending terrorists and weapons into Syria? Why are snipers shooting at unarmed civilians and at police/military?

They have declared they want Assad gone, just as they declared they wanted Gaddafi gone.

Who gives them the right? Let the people decide, and not a gang of terrorists and garbage faced airplanes dropping bombs on innocent civilians. Leave people alone.

The world community is getting fed up with this. China and Russia cannot be hoodwinked now into approving sanctions or approving military action.

The forces of demonic evil now have come nose to nose with the forces of reason. Ships from the U.S. and ships from Russia are now on the coast of Syria. Anything could happen.

Something will happen.

These two counties, China and Russia, also know they are on the list of targets.

You cannot on one hand have a fully armed, nuclear weapons possessing Israel and then tell Iran they cannot even use nuclear energy for peace…their right as signatories of the NPT, a treaty that Israel refuses to sign while also refusing any inspections.

Any one of a number of confrontations is going to start the next world war. These powerbroker elitists think they can escape the effects of a nuclear exchange…just shows how insane they are. They must be stopped and this warning must be taken seriously.

Either the citizens of the world demand these war pigs stand down, or face total global nuclear war. Demand that they stop the lies. Demand that they stop sending terrorists to disrupt the peaceful lives of your brothers and sisters.

Lisa Karpova

Pravda.Ru

Lisa Karpova

The Large Families that rule the world

18.10.2011 00:50

The Large Families that rule the world. 45641.jpegSome people have started realizing that there are large financial groups that dominate the world. Forget the political intrigues, conflicts, revolutions and wars. It is not pure chance. Everything has been planned for a long time.

Some call it “conspiracy theories” or New World Order. Anyway, the key to understanding the current political and economic events is a restricted core of families who have accumulated more wealth and power.

We are speaking of 6, 8 or maybe 12 families who truly dominate the world. Know that it is a mystery difficult to unravel.

We will not be far from the truth by citing Goldman Sachs, Rockefellers, Loebs Kuh and Lehmans in New York, the Rothschilds of Paris and London, the Warburgs of Hamburg, Paris and Lazards Israel Moses Seifs Rome. 

Many people have heard of the Bilderberg Group, Illuminati or the Trilateral Commission. But what are the names of the families who run the world and have control of states and international organizations like the UN, NATO or the IMF?

To try to answer this question, we can start with the easiest: inventory, the world’s largest banks, and see who the shareholders are and who make the decisions.

The world’s largest companies are now: Bank of America, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. 

Let us now review who their shareholders are.

Bank of America: 
State Street Corporation, Vanguard Group, BlackRock, FMR (Fidelity), Paulson, JP Morgan, T. Rowe, Capital World Investors, AXA, Bank of NY, Mellon. 

JP Morgan:

State Street Corp., Vanguard Group, FMR, BlackRock, T. Rowe, AXA, Capital World Investor, Capital Research Global Investor, Northern Trust Corp. and Bank of Mellon. 

Citigroup: 
State Street Corporation, Vanguard Group, BlackRock, Paulson, FMR, Capital World Investor, JP Morgan, Northern Trust Corporation, Fairhome Capital Mgmt and Bank of NY Mellon.

Wells Fargo: 
Berkshire Hathaway, FMR, State Street, Vanguard Group, Capital World Investors, BlackRock, Wellington Mgmt, AXA, T. Rowe and Davis Selected Advisers.

We can see that now there appears to be a nucleus present in all banks: State Street Corporation, Vanguard Group, BlackRock and FMR (Fidelity). To avoid repeating them, we will now call them the “big four” 

Goldman Sachs:

“The big four,” Wellington, Capital World Investors, AXA, Massachusetts Financial Service and T. Rowe. 

Morgan Stanley: 
“The big four,” Mitsubishi UFJ, Franklin Resources, AXA, T. Rowe, Bank of NY Mellon e Jennison Associates. Rowe, Bank of NY Mellon and Jennison Associates.

We can just about always verify the names of major shareholders. To go further, we can now try to find out the shareholders of these companies and shareholders of major banks worldwide. 

Bank of NY Mellon:
Davis Selected, Massachusetts Financial Services, Capital Research Global Investor, Dodge, Cox, Southeatern Asset Mgmt. and … “The big four.” 

State Street Corporation (one of the “big four”): 
Massachusetts Financial Services, Capital Research Global Investor, Barrow Hanley, GE, Putnam Investment and … The “big four” (shareholders themselves!). 

BlackRock (another of the “big four”): 
PNC, Barclays e CIC.
Who is behind the PNC? FMR (Fidelity), BlackRock, State Street, etc. 
And behind Barclays? BlackRock 

And we could go on for hours, passing by tax havens in the Cayman Islands, Monaco or the legal domicile of Shell companies in Liechtenstein. A network where companies are always the same, but never a name of a family.

In short: the eight largest U.S. financial companies (JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon and Morgan Stanley) are 100% controlled by ten shareholders and we have four companies always present in all decisions: BlackRock, State Street, Vanguard and Fidelity. 

In addition, the Federal Reserve is comprised of 12 banks, represented by a board of seven people, which comprises representatives of the “big four,” which in turn are present in all other entities.

In short, the Federal Reserve is controlled by four large private companies: BlackRock, State Street, Vanguard and Fidelity. These companies control U.S. monetary policy (and world) without any control or “democratic” choice. These companies launched and participated in the current worldwide economic crisis and managed to become even more enriched.

To finish, a look at some of the companies controlled by this “big four” group

Alcoa Inc.

Altria Group Inc.

American International Group Inc.

AT&T Inc.

Boeing Co.

Caterpillar Inc.

Coca-Cola Co.

DuPont & Co.

Exxon Mobil Corp.

General Electric Co.

General Motors Corporation

Hewlett-Packard Co.

Home Depot Inc.

Honeywell International Inc.

Intel Corp.

International Business Machines Corp

Johnson & Johnson

JP Morgan Chase & Co.

McDonald’s Corp.

Merck & Co. Inc.

Microsoft Corp.

3M Co.

Pfizer Inc.

Procter & Gamble Co.

United Technologies Corp.

Verizon Communications Inc.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.


Time Warner

Walt Disney

Viacom

Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation.,

CBS Corporation

NBC Universal

The same “big four” control the vast majority of European companies counted on the stock exchange.

In addition, all these people run the large financial institutions, such as the IMF, the European Central Bank or the World Bank, and were “trained” and remain “employees” of the “big four” that formed them.

The names of the families that control the “big four”, never appear.


Translated from the Portuguese version by:

Lisa Karpova

Pravda.Ru

Lisa Karpova

Next War – Iran

05.12.2011 12:47

Next War - Iran. 46044.jpegThe Geopolitics of the times may indicate that the next war is Iran.  Although Pakistan being an established nuclear power would logically be higher on the scales of denuking agenda for so called globalists. Still Geopolitical logic dictates otherwise.

In Iran’s case, the American agenda is to prevent it from going nuclear. (Something which Pakistan achieved over quarter of a century ago – Enriched Uranium) The recent IAEA accusative report, Israel’s brinkmanship (you do it or we do it), American election fervour (attacking Iran is an election issue for 2012, at least for Mitt Romney Republican Presidential candidate), conservative Arab animosity for Revolutionary Iran (in future nuclear armed), Iran’s energy linkage to Russia – China, Iran’s defiance of USA plus western world, and finally the fear or perception of Tehran crossing the nuclear Rubicon combine for ‘Strike on Iran’.

The most likely version is an air and missile strikes or campaign (depending how the war progresses). Still a limited invasion cannot be ruled out (US has freed most of its forces from Iraq for the purpose).

PM Benjamin Netanyahu, National security advisor Uzi Arad and Defence Minister Ehud Barak plus numerous Israeli leaders of late are cajoling for a strike on Iran. American friends have joined the Iran demonization campaign. For nearly a decade, this crying wolf – Iran going nuclear – or need to strike has been going on. This time it looks for real. The problem is both Israel and Iran are supremely confident and itching to fight.

In one scenario, Israeli air force (100 F15E, F16IS, F16cs), plus land based missiles (jhericos) and two Dolphin submarines (firing cruise missiles) off Iran’s coast initiate the first blow. This may be a one – two blow i.e., missile strikes preceding or following the air strikes. Destroying as much as possible of Iranian nuclear projects (Natanz, Esfahan, Busher etc) with bombs and missiles. Tehran’s retaliation with missiles plus Hezbollah, Hamas rockets are absorbed by Israel. Threatening to up the ante (Nuke Iran) Tel Aviv (evoking paranoia of a Second Holocaust) drags USA into the war, to use its larger military muscle. The Iranians fight back (Iran will respond with full force has already been said by Ayatollah Ali Khameni). Though the high intensity war may fizzle out in weeks or months, a low intensity war may continue for years. The Arab – Islamic world would be inflamed, the western world divided. War drags on – at least the asymmetrical part is protracted.         

‘The Point of No Return’ an article by the Atlantic makes clear the high probability of war with Iran. The Israelis are evasive on even if they would inform Washington about such a strike. An Israeli strike appears imminent now or in spring 2012 (winter is not considered ideal for such operations).

In fact the initial strategic moves have been initiated on the Middle East Geopolitical Chessboard. NATO is planning to intervene to achieve regime change in Syria. This is aimed at depriving Iran of its chief ally Syria and somewhat suffocating the Geopolitical space available to Hezbollah and Hamas. After Syria and Iran’s (claimed by US / NATO) isolation, the stage will be set for war on Iran initiated by Israel, US or jointly. Tehran’s revolutionary fervour which engulfed the British Embassy and reports of Libyan (NATO trained) fighters being shipped to fight against the Damascus Regime and a lot more are indicators of the gathering Great Storm.   

Despite an election year if USA strikes Iran, it would obviously be a heavier punch than Israel. More so, it may not be limited to Iran’s nuclear establishment, but also aim at the Revolutionary Guards, military industrial – economic complex, ports, and communication infrastructure. In essence ‘Cave Age or Scorched Earth’. According to David Rothkopf (author of Super Class), it would be folly to assume President Obama cannot strike Iran due to an election year. By the same token, many Americans and Europeans are against an attack on Iran.

The British are unsure, the French hesitant, Germans Anti aggression, the Russians (Putin led) against an attack, the Chinese peace loving, even India and Pakistan may have similar views – (no attack on Iran). The world yearns for peace, but the Israeli leaders are preparing (even if the Israeli nation is divided on the issue). Good Americans want jobs at home not conflict abroad – but the war lobby wants war.

Attack on Iran plans have been on hold since President Bush era. Now in 2012, US Presidential campaign ‘most Republican Candidates’ except Ron Paul are for ‘bombing Iran’.

Interestingly America’s ex defenders Mr. Robert Gates, Admiral Mike Mullen, General Zinni etc have serious reservations on the ‘Persian Misadventure’. Even the present Defence Secretary Panetta (despite europhia of Bin Laden killing)’warned of unintended consequences!

Even more ironically the Israeli nation is divided by half on the subject. (After all the expected Iranian riposte of missiles, rockets and asymmetrical attacks is going to first of all target Israel). As a smart Israeli went to the extent of saying that if America was so worried about a ‘Second Holocaust’ it might fight Iran itself (without Israeli involvement). The Israeli Defence Forces even while confident are apprehensive and rightly so!

Still wise people in Europe, America and elsewhere are asking pertinent questions. A single Israeli Air strike will not be sufficient to totally destroy the Iranian nuclear projects, (delay it by 2 to 3 years), what next? If the US does not bomb Iran, what is the war termination strategy? Will it become a regional war by design or default? Will it escalate to nuclear realm?

What will be the impact on the Arab spring and Middle East? (Probably go hyper Anti Israel – Anti American!)

The reality is, there are no good answers. What if radioactivity due to Israel – US bombing reaches Nuclear Armed Pakistan and India? (Of course the Pakistani elite have no time for such issues. They are uninitiated into Pakistani Geopolitical issues, what to ponder about Iran?)

Unfortunately the fact is that an attack on Iran will adversely affect Pakistan in many ways. Pakistan will be surrounded by hostile India, unstable Afghanistan and warring Iran. Radioactivity leaks due to bombing may reach Pakistan! (Even handling Dengue Mosquitoes has been an uphill task). Inflame Shias, bring Iranian refugees, disrupt gas, oil import and bring Pakistan closer to the denuking agenda!

Reportedly the Russian PM Putin when recently briefed on emerging Geopolitics and probability of war told his generals, ‘Prepare for Armageddon’!

Putin – a great visionary leader is absolutely right. US – NATO attack on Iran would unleash ‘the hounds of hell’ not only for the victim state but the region around, the world at large and the attackers themselves!

The only viable solution in Global interest is ‘Geopolitics of Peace’. A comprehensive peace settlement from Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf to include Israel – Palestine, Israel – Iran issues. Plus pull out of all foreign troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. The need for denuking wars would stand obviated. The specter of hell on earth (for everybody) exorcised!

Nadir Mir

Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”

Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/

The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

NATO conceals preparations for military action against Syria

24.11.2011 16:33

NATO conceals preparations to military action against Syria. 45954.jpegThe United States has decided to disengage itself from certain obligations on the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). In particular, the USA will no longer inform Russia about the plans connected with the redeployment of its forces. Those restrictions are not touching upon any other country.

“Today the United States announced in Vienna, Austria, that it would cease carrying out certain obligations under the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty with regard to Russia. This announcement in the CFE Treaty’s implementation group comes after the United States and NATO Allies have tried over the past 4 years to find a diplomatic solution following Russia’s decision in 2007 to cease implementation with respect to all other 29 CFE States. Since then, Russia has refused to accept inspections and ceased to provide information to other CFE Treaty parties on its military forces as required by the Treaty,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said on Tuesday.

According to her, the USA does not refuse from the dialogue with Russia within the scope of the Treaty. However, Russia must get back to the institution of the CFE, the US diplomat added.

Nuland also said that the United States did not intend to tie the CFE with the missile defense talks.

The remarks from the US diplomat look like another attempt to turn everything up side down again. It is worth mentioning here that the first edition of the CFE Treaty was signed in 1990, during the existence of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The document stipulated a reduction of the number of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery (larger than 100 mm in caliber), combat planes and helicopters, as well as information exchange.

A renewed variant of the treaty was signed in 1999. The new edition reflected such changes in Europe as the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the expansion of NATO. However, only Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan ratified the new treaty. Russia moved a big part of its arms behind the Ural mountains, but the Western countries did not even want to execute it. The expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance continued, and NATO neared Russian borders.

At the end of 2007, Vladimir Putin decided to suspend Russia’s participation in the CFE until the USA and its European allies ratified the renewed variant of the treaty. The Americans did not want to make any moves in that direction. Now they have decided not to inform Russia about the redeployment of its forces. This is obviously another violation of the treaty which the United States committed.

What consequences may Russia face as a result of the US decision? Pravda.Ru asked expert opinion from the director of the Center for Military Forecasts, Anatoly Tsyganok.

The USA will stop informing Russia about military redeployments. The Americans can technically send their troops to Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia, which did not sign the treaty. Will the Baltic states turn into an uncontrollable military center near Russia’s borders?”

“When Russia suspended its participation in the CFE Treaty, she had the right to say that some NATO’s newcomers, such as the Baltic states and Slovenia, had never signed the treaty. Now NATO eyes Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania and all other former members of the Warsaw Pact.

“When they were deciding on the unification of Germany in 1990, Germany and France said in the appendix to the adequate agreement that NATO would not move beyond the Oder River (the river separates Germany and Poland – ed.). However, the West does not take this appendix into consideration. They only follow the agreement itself, which does not say a word about the non-expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance. It just so happens that the USA and its allies played a trick on Russia.

Why did it take the United States four years to decide not to inform Russia about military redeployments?”

“Apparently, it is connected with the situation in the Mediterranean Sea. One may assume that NATO will create a military group near Russia’s southern borders to strike Syria. They will most likely raise this issue at the NATO summit in December. They will try to analyze Syria’s actions in case NATO conducts a military operation against the country, like it already happened in Libya.”

Is Russia a big obstacle for conducting NATO’s operation against Syria? Does the USA have anything to conceal from us at this point?”

“Russia is an obstacle, yes. We have a naval base in Syria’s Tartus. The base is protected with air defense complexes, so the chances for aggression from NATO or Israel from the sea are slim. If they decide to attack, it will most likely happen from the side of Saudi Arabia. So the USA has something to conceal.

“There is another aspect to this. There are approximately 120,000 Russian citizens living in Syria. Presumably, it goes about Russian women, who married local men. Russia can use this detail to interfere into the events in Syria. In addition, 20 percent of the Russian defense complex will simply tip off the perch in case Russia loses the Syrian market. It is not ruled out that they are regrouping NATO forces to get ready for the war against Syria, and they don’t want to notify Russia of that.”

Vadim Trukhachev

Pravda.Ru

媒體稱伊朗軍隊加緊備戰 美國或兩周內對伊空襲

鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源:財匯資訊,摘自:中國新聞網) 2011-12-08 10:35:02 

英國《每日電訊報》網站12月6日報導】題:伊朗革命衛隊備戰

由於有越來越多的跡象表明西方將采取直接行動摧毀伊朗的核計劃,伊朗革命衛隊已經準備作戰。

革命衛隊指揮官穆罕默德·阿里·賈法里將軍下令提高軍隊的戰備級別,著手為可能的外部攻擊和偷襲做好準備。

西方情報官員說,伊朗已經開始把遠程導彈、高爆炸藥、炮兵部隊和革命衛隊部署到關鍵防御陣地。

下達這項命令是對國際社會加大對伊朗核計劃的壓力作出的回應。國際原子能機構上月在維也納發表報告,提供了伊朗積極從事生產核武器活動的證據。之后,伊朗加快了備戰步伐。

伊朗領導層擔心,伊朗即將遭到一場由西方情報和安全機構精心協調的攻擊,以便摧毀其核基礎設施的關鍵部分。

最近的幾場爆炸讓伊朗國內日益增長的疑神疑鬼的感覺更加嚴重。伊朗政權擔心,它將成為以色列或者美國的一場軍事突襲的目標。

華盛頓近東政策研究所的帕特里克·克勞森對《洛杉磯時報》記者說:“看起來像是21世紀的戰爭形式。的確看起來有暗殺戰和網絡戰,還有未得到完全承認的破壞戰。”

伊朗精神領袖哈梅內伊指示該國所有軍事、情報和安全機構的領導人采取一切必要的措施保衛政權。

賈法里將軍響應這項指示,下令革命衛隊把伊朗遠程“流星”導彈重新部署到全國各地的秘密地點,使這些導彈免遭敵軍的攻擊,并有可能用於發動報復性攻擊。

此外,伊朗空軍組建了許多“快速反應分隊”。它們一直在進行大量對敵軍空襲作出反應的訓練。

【英國《阿拉伯耶路撒冷報》12月7日報導】據《每日鏡報》周一透露,一場由以色列摩薩德訓練的分裂分子領導的、反對伊朗核威脅的秘密戰爭在等待了幾個月后已進入實施,美國很可能在兩周內對伊朗數十個重要目標進行空襲。

該報說,潛伏在德黑蘭的一些基層組織得到了使用自制炸彈襲擊目標的暗號,已用燃燒彈對伊朗核科學家的住宅和辦公室實施了數十次襲擊。

該報說,這些襲擊是以色列情報機構摩薩德訓練的伊朗反對派干的,這是一個明確的信息,要求伊朗停止核武器計劃,并告之公眾,為發展核武器工作的科學家誰都認識。

該報援引西方一位重要情報人士的話說,“美國軍事戰略家們每天都在討論對伊朗進行全面打擊的各種不同方案”。

駐倫敦的一些外交人士說,上周英國和一些西方國家的外交使團撤出德黑蘭“就是為進攻伊朗鋪路”。

《每日鏡報》援引一些不愿透露姓名的有關人士的話說,“如果進攻伊朗,將由美國來領導這場戰爭.很可能會得到倫敦的支持,因為有跡象表明英國軍事專家們正通過地中海監聽站監視伊朗的通訊聯絡”。

該報認為,美軍很可能使用新一代高精準導彈摧毀伊朗深達60 米的地下工事。美國還將使用裝備有長達6米、可攜帶重達2.5噸炸藥的激光制導導彈的B2隱形轟炸機破壞伊朗被懷疑藏有大規模殺傷性武器的掩體和隧道。

西方斷言伊朗遠程導彈計划已難翻身,可能為時尚早

  本報記者/吳濤

  隨著伊朗在與英國的外交糾紛中放低姿態,上月發生的伊朗導彈爆炸事件重新成了西方輿論品讀的話題。有人認為,內賈德政府“變軟”的重要原因之一就是那次爆炸癱瘓了伊朗的導彈工業,使其失去了與西方叫板的“牙齒”。

  《紐約時報》12月4日報導稱,美國科學和國際安全研究所提供的伊朗11月12日導彈爆炸前後當地的衛星照片對比顯示,這座位於沙漠中的伊朗固體燃料導彈試驗中心在爆炸中實際上已被完全摧毀。美國等西方國家和以色列的軍方官員及導彈技術專家們也據此認為,伊朗遠程彈道導彈發展計划已遭到重創。

  擁有中東最大導彈庫

  伊朗導彈計划基本起步于上世紀70年代末伊朗伊斯蘭革命後。兩伊戰爭爆發後,在戰爭初期吃盡伊拉克火箭彈和彈道導彈苦頭的伊朗,開始與伊拉克展開導彈軍備競賽。近30年來,包括彈道導彈在內的各種導彈一直是伊朗軍工發展的重中之重。

  據西方媒體報導,目前伊朗擁有中東地區最強大的導彈庫,現役彈道導彈總數約1500多枚,已具備中遠程打擊能力。其中采用液態燃料的“流星-3”導彈最具代表性。據稱該型彈研發工作始于1993年,2003年正式裝備伊斯蘭革命衛隊。有資料顯示,“流星-3”長16米,最大發射重量16吨,最大推力13吨,有效載荷1200公斤,可攜帶重量為760至1158公斤的戰鬥部,射程超過2000公里。

  不過,伊朗並沒有就此止步。據報導,近10多年來伊朗開始重點發展中遠程彈道導彈,並先後發展出“沙哈伯”系列導彈。其中,“沙哈伯”-4/5/6型更是采用了固體燃料發動機。值得一提的是,有西方媒體報導說,沙哈伯-5射程可達3500至3750公里,而且可以攜帶750至1000公斤的彈頭,而沙哈伯-6射程預計可達5470至6200公里之間,攜帶彈頭重量可達500至1000公斤。

  可能正在技術攻堅

  從上面的數據可以看出,西方報導關於伊朗導彈的射程、彈頭重量等參數,大都是揣測,後者的真實性能並不為外界所知。

  有軍事專家指出,西方媒體的報導明顯帶有誇大的成份,實際上,伊朗多年來一直受到西方國家制裁,很難進口先進的導彈技術,雖然有媒體指稱伊朗導彈發展得到了朝鮮的幫助,但眾所周知,朝鮮的導彈技術本身就很落後,不可能給伊朗提供很大的支持。至於伊朗國內媒體的渲染報導,可能也衹是出于向西方叫板的宣傳目的。當然,從此次爆炸破壞程度的衛星照片看,伊朗正在研發測試的這款導彈可能具有較大威力,不能排除是一枚采用固體燃料的中遠程彈道導彈的可能性。

  倫敦國際戰略研究所近日發表的一份報告稱,固體燃料發動機已經成為伊朗導彈開發項目的“轉折點”,這項技術對伊朗來說具有深遠的戰略意義,因為它將幫助伊朗接近打造遠程導彈的目標。

  也正是基於這個原因,一些西方國家和不少防務專家認為,此次導彈爆炸對伊朗來說,是一次重大打擊:一方面試驗基地被完全摧毀﹔另一方麵包括伊朗導彈項目領導人、有“伊朗導彈之父”之稱的穆加達姆將軍在內的一系列導彈專家在爆炸中喪生,讓伊朗在短期內很難恢復其導彈研發能力。

  不過,也有分析認為,伊朗一向視導彈為其抗衡美以的主要殺手 ,一次爆炸是否能夠奪去伊朗整個導彈發展體系的根本,現在還難以早下結論。

  新聞鏈接:

  美以發起“超限戰”?

  雖然伊朗導彈爆炸事件已過去近4周時間,但圍繞導彈爆炸原因的種種說法依然舖天蓋地。《紐約時報》報導說,到目前為還不清楚爆炸的原因,不過有美國專家推測說,爆炸可能是由伊朗缺乏製造和使用固體燃料導彈的經驗造成的。有伊朗官員則認為,爆炸可能緣于蓄意破壞。

  就在《紐約時報》報導說到目前為止還沒有任何證據支撐“蓄意破壞”說之際,美國《洛杉磯時報》12月4日援引華盛頓近東政策研究所“伊朗安全計划”負責人帕特里克﹒克勞森的話報導稱,此次爆炸是美國、以色列等國反對伊朗核計划行動的一部分,是一場“超限戰”,目的是讓伊朗核武器計划偏離軌道。中央情報局前特工阿特﹒凱勒也對該報說:“這應該是中情局反核擴散部門的手法,目的是延緩伊朗大規模殺傷性武器研制計划。”該報同時引用一些西方分析師的結論舉例說,早在去年,美國和以色列就通過網絡向伊朗互聯網終端和核電站員工個人電腦祕密植入“震網”蠕蟲病毒,並一度導致布什爾核電站濃縮鈾離心機失靈。

  有軍事專家指出,通過植入電腦病毒來破壞伊朗的核設施及導彈項目的可能性並非沒有,“超限戰”作戰樣式的最大優勢在於,不僅能做到殺人不見血,而且可實現“零傷亡”。(吳濤)//

美國面臨中共三千枚核彈威脅

【新唐人2011年12月7日訊】(希望之聲《伍凡評論》節目)伍凡:各位聽眾好,現在是《伍凡評論》第266期,今天我要講的題目是:美國面臨中共三千枚核彈威脅。

根據《華盛頓郵報》11月30日報導,美國喬治城大學( Georgetown University ) 教授卡伯( Phillip Karber ) 和他的學生,長期研究中共的二砲部隊,他們在沒有公開發表的報告中指出,中共挖掘了長達4,828公里的地下隧道。根據這個推算,中共軍隊擁有的核子彈頭高達3千枚,超過了過去各個大學、各個學者、各個情報機構推算出來的中共的核彈頭,只有80枚到400枚這一個譜。這一篇長達363頁沒有正式公開的研究報告,已經在美國的國防部和美國的民間智庫之間流傳;美國國會甚至要邀請卡伯教授來出席聽證會。

美國的國防部在今年8月份公佈的《2011年中共軍力評估報告》​​當中,也引用了卡伯教授以及學生們研究的報告的中間的一部分。這個報告裡邊提到,由二砲部隊挖掘的上面的3千英里的這樣一個隧道,是中共軍方的一個祕密的分支機構,它的職責是保護和部署導彈和核彈頭。

但是話又講回來,由於北京的一直缺乏透明度,它從來不公佈它究竟有多少導彈,尤其是有多少核彈。所以卡伯教授也承認,這個報告裡面一部分猜測可能是有錯誤的。甚至於有人問他、挑戰他:「你這報告準確度有多少?」他說:「我不知道中共有多少核導彈、核彈頭。」的確如此,因為你中共不公開嘛!你怎麼能知道準確的、它的最核心的秘密呢?

那麼我們合起來要問,卡伯教授和他的研究生們所得的數據是從哪裡來的呢?為什麼他們對個問題這樣有興趣呢?卡伯教授曾經在美國國防部擔任過工作,他職位相當高,可以直接向國防部長和參謀長聯席會議主席作報告,所以他能夠看到一些相當高機密的文件。

在3年前,也就是08年四川汶川地震爆發之後,有消息報導,在汶川和綿陽之間,眾山峻嶺中間有很多從地下爆出來的水泥、鋼筋那些碎塊,這是第一個跡象,就說明在這個地底下有建築物。第二點,當時中共的媒體報導,中共派出了幾千名,防化學、防核輻射的那些專業技術人員,到了綿陽、汶川去搶救。從這一個行動可以估計,在四川汶川和綿陽的地底下是有核設施、核裝置或者有核彈頭。但是有多少?人們不知道,從這些跡象來看代表是有這樣的活動。

之後,到了08年7月4日,《大紀元時報》也發表了一篇獨家的文章,這篇文章叫做《大地震銷毀中共軍隊最大兵庫》,那麼這消息來源從拿裡來的呢?是從中共軍隊高層有關的人士透露出來的。中共軍隊經營了幾十年的一個軍庫,這次地震中被報廢了、炸毀了;其中也包括核裝置、核設施、核彈,數量多少?不清楚。從這些蛛絲馬跡以及一些流露出來的資料,引起了卡伯教授的興趣,是一個可以研究的著落點。所以他就召集了一批學生,其中有懂中文的學​​生,他們去廣泛的蒐集資料,從這個切入點來了解一下,中共地底下究竟有什麼樣的一些核武器、核彈頭?這是一個。再有一點,就在前兩年中共的央視也公佈了「千里地下長城」。從各個角度流露出來的現實和媒體的報導,讓人們感覺到中共在大力的建設地下隧道和建立核武庫和導彈等等。

卡伯教授和他的學生們廣泛的蒐集資料,這資料相當一部分是從網站上得來的,就是蒐集從Google的地圖、博客、中共的軍方雜誌、中共軍方的內部資料,以及一部分關於中共武器庫、士兵的電視影片等等。這個小組裡邊有懂中文的翻譯成英文上百份文件,從衛星圖像上面找到了成千上萬的網路數據。同時他們在這3年之內,蒐集了有關二砲部隊大約是有140萬字的數據庫,並且他們還通過私人關係,在中國獲得了一份有400頁的二砲部隊的一個手冊。根據這些資料,他們就對幾處隧道的結構進行了三角測量,從而大概的推算出,每一處地下建築儲存的是什麼樣類型的導彈。

這份研究可顯示這些導彈是如何在車輛中儲存和運輸,他們畫出了圖像,比如導彈火車、用來運送遠程導彈的火車車廂等等。除此之外,他們還得到了一個電視片,這個電視片對他們來講是很重要的一個參考資料,這一部電視片是由中共自己拍的,是二砲部隊士兵的生活狀況。

這部影片裡完整和準確的看到二砲部隊分隊的排列,這些和他們所得到的內部那份有400頁的手冊,以及和其它從網路、各方面得到的、所提供的資料一對比是相吻合的。所以卡伯教授說,電視畫面顯示出的導彈,從隧道裡面運出去的導彈部署,是如何完成的。在這之前他們看到的僅僅是零碎的畫面,是不夠完整的,而這電視片給他們提供了一個相當準確的依據。

那麼《華盛頓郵報》11月30日消息登出來了之後,受到了不同的評論,其中有一部分認為卡伯教授所做的工作是不真實的;有的人甚至非常粗暴的講,他說: 「你們是欺騙的,你們很懶惰,你們欺騙。」但是我要問了,如果說他是欺騙的話,那麼卡伯教授是欺騙了美國國防部;因為美國國防部在今年的8月份,發表的《2011年中共軍力評估報告》​​裡面,採用了他們的一部分資料,那麼這樣的話,卡伯是變成犯了欺騙罪了!我並不這樣認為。因為他們所做的工作是幾十人做的,不是一個人做的,並且有各種各樣的參考資料,並且有電視片、有手冊。至於說他欺騙,也是一家之說吧!美國是言論自由,你一家之說。

但是你要準確的說它有3千枚導彈,可能是可以商榷的,因為你無法得到那麼準確的說就是3千枚,難道不會有3,100枚嗎?所以這個是可以商榷的。但是你說的「欺騙」,欺騙什麼?如果僅僅是在數據上你對他懷疑,可以商榷;如果你說中共沒有這些導彈,根本就是卡伯教授他們製造出假的這些所有的情報,那我並不這樣看。

我們來看看歷史,並且看看中共的本質。首先看歷史,中共建設地下長城,不是最近這3年才開始的,已經有半個世紀了。在上個世紀​​60年代,中蘇交惡的時候,毛澤東害怕蘇聯,那個時候還是叫蘇聯,擁有核彈頭要來轟炸北京、轟炸大江南北。所以毛澤東在1970年前後,他就下令要「深挖洞、廣積糧、不稱霸」,所以在那個時候,在全中國的大江南北、大中城市都在地下挖防空洞,同時,他們開始挖地下長城。地下長城,據我現在所看到的資料,它在哪裡呢?是從山西和河南交界的太行山一直延伸向東到山東,這一條線沿著山脈到了海邊。

這個長城不僅僅是卡伯教授他們有提到,而是中國老百姓在口傳這些,傳遞各種內部消息,都已經反映出有這麼個事實,而不是假的。並且中共的央視自己也放出影片來了,也證實有地下長城。《美國之音》中文部的記者,採訪了在澳門的資深軍事研究員黃東先生,他表示在上述研究的報告所說的地下長城,是二砲在上個世紀​​80年代就開始搞的兩項工程,外界早有耳聞。

他說一個叫「長城工程」是防護的,另外一個叫作「金龍工程」是進攻用的,兩者是相輔相成,沒有誰比誰高,兩個是配套的工程,範圍之龐大隻有前蘇聯可以相比。那麼我們要問一下,為什麼中共要下這麼大的力氣去建設它的地下隧道、地下長城?以及被卡伯教授所預估出來的製造出3千枚核彈頭呢?他們為什麼要這麼做?前面有人講他們是講假話,可是我們說他實在是真的在做,為什麼要這麼做?原因在哪裡?在我看來它的原因是在於中共著力發展和生產核彈頭和中遠程導彈,是中共掠奪、擴張的本質所決定的,並不是別人說是「真話、假話」所能夠把它掩蓋得了的。

我們看看事實。一,2005年7月14日在香港舉行了一個官方的簡報會,是由中國外交部主辦的,出席會議的有中國國防大學防務學院院長朱成虎少將,他在這簡報會上回答記者的問題,有關:中國如何因應美國介入台海衝突的問題時候,他說:「如果美國人將他們的飛彈和導向武器對準中國領土內的目標區,我認為我們將必須以核武器反擊。如果美國人決心幹預,我們就決心反擊,我們將準備讓西安以東的所有城市被摧毀,當​​然美國人將必須準備好數以百計,或者200個、甚至更多的城市被中國人夷為平地。」這件事情是在6年多前發生的,發生後的不久,美國國務院向中共提出抗議,要求朱成虎少將道歉。

他說你這個是現役軍人,一個將軍,用核武器來威脅美國,這是過去從來沒有過的。所以我就講中共製造核武器不是拿著玩的,是準備要打仗啊!準備第一個目標是炸美國的。

所以有的人批評卡伯教授那些研究或者數據是假的,我不贊成,因為這和歷史事實以及現狀不符。他們研究的目標,是要揭露中共所用於的核武器導彈是對美國威脅的手段,讓大家知道而已。這個揭露的準確不準確是一回事,但是他們的確揭露了中共拿核武器要威脅美國,這是事實擺在那裡嘛!那麼再看另外一位將軍怎麼講的,在2005年的8月前中共國防部長遲浩田,他作內部講話,朱成虎是作公開講話;他這個是內部講話。那內部講話裡邊他有一段非常引人關注的一點,他說:「無論如何,我們中國共產黨是不會退出歷史舞台的,我們寧可要整個世界,甚至整個地球和我們共產黨存亡,也不會退出歷史舞台。現在不是有什麼「核綑綁」理論嗎?就是說核武器把整個世界的安全綑綁在一起,要死大家一起死,我看世界上還有另外一種綑綁,那就是我們共產黨的命運和整個世界的命運綑綁在一起,如果我們共產黨完了,中國就完了,全世界也就完了。」

你看他這段話!「核綑綁」、用核威脅,要威脅大家,你要我死嗎?我們一起死。這就是它要發展核武器的最終目標,要維護共產黨的統治;同時,你要我下台,我要你一起死。這是跟朱成虎少將所講的話異曲同工,我要做任何事情你要阻攔我的話,那我就用核彈打你,我寧可把整個半個國土、西安以東都讓給你,被炸掉,但是你也200個城市被我炸掉。你要用核彈炸200個城市,至少1個或者3個,那麼就是600枚,600枚你還要有一些庫存,至少恐怕要有1千枚,你才能夠放這個大話。

這個1千枚大話是在6年前講的,6年過去了,中共會停止它的核武庫的數量的增加嗎?不會的。它要打美國、打日本、打台灣,它用這樣的核武器來威脅。那麼再看看胡錦濤怎麼講​​,胡錦濤2008年在黨內的內部講話就講了,他這麼說:「我們在很多方面同希特勒德國相似,尤其是我們同希特勒德國一樣快速崛起,帶來很多人的恐慌,運用人類文明所有的成果來壯大我們黨的力量,也就是站在巨人的肩膀上來駕​​馭巨人,最後要打倒和取代西方巨人。」他用西方最先進的軍事技術、科學來把西方打倒,其中包括核彈。所以卡伯教授以及他們學生這個研究,我覺得是有現實意義的。

至於他研究中間的數據的準確性、可靠性可以提出質疑,但是你不要否認他整個研究的目標,是要揭露共產黨的邪惡,揭露共產黨用核武器、核綑綁來威脅整個西方國家,包括美國、日本、歐盟在內。所以這一點,我想如果是通情達理、你能夠承認歷史、也能夠承認現實的話,我們就要把它肯定下來。

那麼我們再回想一下,為什麼在這個時候《華盛頓郵報》把這個消息登出來?因為《華盛頓郵報》早就知道卡伯教授他們有這個報告,並且這個報告已經被美國國防部採用其中的一部分資料,已經刊登在《2011年中共軍力評估報告》​​裡頭。這份報告是向美國國會提出來的,國防部向美國國會報告,現在美國國會還要準備開聽證會,要卡伯教授以及他的學生們來作證。可見美國國會是很認真、認同這份報告;如果你是一個欺騙的報告,美國國會為什麼要那麼重視你呢?對不對?不可能嘛!

所以現在這個報告在這個時候出來,我們要看看現在是個什麼時空,這是在朱成虎威脅中共的核彈要轟炸美國200個城市之後的6年,中共的核武庫一定會增加,而不是在減少,它的軍事擴張繼續在上升。這是第一。第二,你看最近這幾個月的國際新聞媒體報導,有幾個國家都涉及到了和核武器有關,一是伊朗,美國和歐盟一直要製裁伊朗的核武器發展;中國和俄國堅決反對。中國為什麼反對呢?中國希望伊朗有核武器來跟美國幹,甚至希望用伊朗核武器來牽制美國、牽制西歐,這是中共的目的,用核武器。

第二,朝鮮的核武器,根據「維基解密」所透露的消息,根據前外交部長錢其琛的講話:「朝鮮的核武器就是中國的二砲部隊在朝鮮所建立的一個基地」,研究、生產、發展的一個基地,是中國人控制的。所以美國反對北朝鮮有核武器,實際上就是反對中國核武器的擴張。而北朝鮮的核武器到現在沒解決,六方會談本身不了了之,一直在拖。所以這也是個熱點。

第三,巴基斯坦有核武器,最近巴基斯坦和美國的關係搞得非常僵,甚至快走到破裂的邊緣,巴基斯坦下令要美國的CIA在15天之內,從巴基斯坦邊境的一個飛機場全部撤離。那麼美國所擔心的,巴基斯坦要是發生動亂,它的核武器一旦被恐怖主義份子拿去的話,那全世界就遭殃。巴基斯坦核武器一直跟北京相關連的,是中共長期支持巴基斯坦發展核武器,既對抗印度,又牽制著東南亞這些國家。

最近美國國務卿希拉里訪問緬甸,訪問緬甸中間有一段話是很有意思的,她說:「美國鼓勵和支持緬甸走上民主化,但是現在美國還沒有決定要停止對緬甸的製裁,只有等到緬甸走更大一步的改革之後,我們再考慮要放棄制裁。其中特別美國關注的就是緬甸和北朝鮮的核活動之間的關係不中斷的話,那麼美國是不會放棄對緬甸的製裁。」這話中有話,緬甸可能也在搞核武器,而這緬甸搞核武器,我相信跟北朝鮮的性質相類似,有中共介入了。

你看,中共介入到北朝鮮、巴基斯坦和緬甸的核武器發展,而它本身又在積極的發展、擴充它的核武庫,目標威脅西方國家,要打倒西方巨人。所以在這種狀況下,為什麼這個時候《華盛頓郵報》把這個題目要挑出來呢?我想這是和整個目前的世界局勢有關。這是第一。其次,還有歐盟的金融危機,如果不能夠有步驟的、很穩定的逐步去解決的話,那麼人們擔心上一個世紀、30年代大蕭條再到來,會不會有民族主義和極端的、激進的思潮再興起?因為那個時候興起了希特勒納粹主義和墨索里尼的法西斯主義,結果引起了第二次世界大戰;人們也擔心因為金融、經濟損害到所有人的生活。

在這種狀況下,中共是希望世界和平?還是起來趁機掠奪全世界呢?因為無論是遲浩田的講話、胡錦濤的講話,他們的目標是要跟希特勒學,要爭取生存空間、要打出去、要把中國受到污染的土地丟掉,他們要去掠奪別的國家乾淨的空氣、土地、水源這樣一個領土、領海,他們抱著這麼個想法來跟全世界打交道。所以這個時候他們發展核武器以及鼓勵他們周圍幾個聽命於他們的國家發展核武器,這是非常合乎邏輯的。所以你要講卡伯教授他是欺騙,欺騙什麼?如果說這個數字,我們可以討論;如果說他欺騙「中共根本沒有核威脅」,這個話根本就是不能成立的。

所以我們講美國《華盛頓郵報》把這個問題捅出來以後,人們是不是會想,美國軍方有什麼目標?因為《華盛頓郵報》跟美國國防部,跟美國軍方關係非常密切,常常也通過《華盛頓郵報》暴露一些內部的消息。美國現在正處在一個金融危機還沒有完全復甦的時期,美國稅收急遽減少、國庫虧了很多國債,奧巴馬已經下令要減少軍費,其中減少軍費數量非常大。有沒有可能美國軍方為了爭取軍費,而把這樣一個威脅性突出來「你們減少軍費我們受到威脅」,有沒有這種可能?我相信這可能是存在的。這講的也是事實,你錢少了嘛,你要減少軍費,但是現在我們的國家受到核威脅,你要顧慮到國家安全第一。所以這個時候把它提出來。

那麼從另一個角度講,的確是受到威脅了,所以美國國防部要提出來,你不能減少軍費,減少得​​太多我們國家不安全。所以這個是整個大局勢所決定的,要把這份東西出來,出來之後,美國國會還要聽證。我想美國國會聽證,也是要決定美國的軍費要減多少?恐怕是一個步驟,要由聽證會來決定,你不能夠不關心國防,僅僅關心每一個人的工作,這裡邊也要有一個平衡的關係,如果不能夠達到平衡的話,如果國家不安全你工作也沒有了。

你既要有工作,但是一定要有穩定的國家安全,所以在這個前提下,奧巴馬他也採取了一些措施,應對這些危險。我們可以看到,奧巴馬從上任以來一直提倡要重返亞太。從今年開始重返了亞太,要建立一個TPP ( Trans-Pacific Partnership 跨太平洋經濟戰略夥伴協定) 的經濟結構,要孤立中共,要和澳洲建立軍事協定,要跟菲律賓加強軍事合作,要建立一個亞洲版的北約。為什麼?因為中共擴張了嘛!中共軍事擴張威脅到這些國家了,所以美國要往前走,並且從更深層的角度來說明美國的安全和利益受到了威脅,所以美國要把能夠防護美國國家的範圍往前擴到中國大門口,這是保護美國。

那麼其中「保護」的就是要防止讓中國用核彈攻擊美國,所以美國也要發展更重量的新式武器、高速的武器,以及準確的、非常精靈的、炸深層式的地下建築物的炸彈等等都在發展、都在研究,目標就是針對中共的軍事力量。所以我今天講這個題目為了一個目的,這三千枚的導彈數字不一定很準確,可是中共的核威脅始終籠罩在全人類的頭上,這一點是確實無疑的;有歷史證明,也有現實證明。

好,今天我的評論到這裡結束。謝謝各位,再見。

(據希望之聲國際廣播電台《伍凡評論》節目錄音整理)

The war against Iran’s nuclear program has already begun

Explosions, deadly computer viruses and other sorts of ‘accidents’ – someone is targeting Iran’s nuclear project: either the Western intelligence agencies, internal opposition groups, or both.

By Yossi MelmanTags: Iran nuclear Iran threat

The war is under way, though no one declared it and no one will confirm it. This is the secret war against Iran’s nuclear project. It did not start this week or last month. It has been under way for years, but only faint echoes have reached the public.

In June 2010, the press reported that the computer system operating the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz had been infected with a virus. A deadly worm, known as Stuxnet, had infiltrated the controllers, manufactured by Siemens.

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Two weeks ago, a huge blast ripped through a Revolutionary Guards military base 40 kilometers west of Tehran. The explosion could be heard as far away as the capital. Dozens of people were killed, including the head of Iran’s missile development project, General Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam. This week, there was a powerful explosion in Isfahan, Iran’s third-largest city, which has a uranium conversion plant on its outskirts. It is not yet clear what was damaged in the blast.

These incidents involved three key elements of Iran’s nuclear program. The first is uranium conversion (which comes after the mineral has been mined ), the second is enrichment, and the third is the delivery means.

Coupled with other incidents, including the assassination of several Iranian nuclear scientists, these events have worried the ayatollahs’ regime, causing reactions ranging from embarrassment to anger. The public response usually follows a pattern: first a sweeping denial, then a limp and stuttering admission that “something happened,” and finally the claim that it was an “accident.” This shows that the regime does not know exactly what to say, and that its voice is not uniform. It also reflects the fierce dispute within the regime’s top ranks. The leadership is divided, and the reactions come from a range of ministries, rival organizations and competing media outlets.

The kind of sabotage used in Iran requires sophistication, financial and technological resources, agents and precise intelligence. Someone, for example, had to know that General Moqaddam would be at the base that day to supervise a test, apparently of a new missile engine.

Infecting the computers required access to them: A person with a flash drive had to have plugged it into the system. The prevailing assumption is that foreign intelligence agencies are initiating, managing and executing the secret operations.

The Iranians, and international media outlets, believe these operations are the work of Israel’s Mossad and possibly also a Western partner such as the CIA or Britain’s MI6.

The Mossad’s campaign to assassinate the Black September members behind the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre was code-named “Wrath of God.” This week, when asked whether God had carried out the recent operations in Iran, former Mossad head Meir Dagan smilingly said yes. Dagan is known to be an ardent supporter of secret operations, as he told Yedioth Ahronoth explicitly this week. He believes it will be at least two years until Iran can assemble a functioning nuclear weapon. This assessment may be based on past secret operations and on Dagan’s faith that future actions can indeed disrupt Iran’s progress.

A senior American official went even farther. President Barack Obama’s special assistant and coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction, proliferation and terrorism, Gary Samore, said in May 2011, “I’m glad to hear they are having troubles with their centrifuge machines, and the U.S. and its allies are doing everything we can to make it more complicated.” Do we need any clearer statement that humans are behind the “hand of God”?

Even if the Mossad or the CIA are not involved in these incidents, the speculation that they are serves Western intelligence bodies by enhancing their image as “omnipotent,” and heightening the Iranian leadership’s fear. This is known as psychological warfare.

Still, with all due respect for Western intelligence’s great efforts – including what is probably unprecedented operational coordination – it is unlikely these operations could have succeeded without inside support, meaning from individuals or groups ready to help sabotage the ayatollahs’ regime. It should be remembered that Iran is a mosaic of ethnic minorities, and almost all have reasons for disliking the regime; some have their own underground armed militias.

The theory about inside-help gains traction given that, in addition to the military targets, other sites – including oil facilities, gas pipelines, trains and military bases – were also damaged over the past year. Last year there was a considerable increase, of at least 10 percent, in “breakdowns” and “accidents” at Iran’s strategic infrastructure sites. Some were caused by poor maintenance, due in part to the international sanctions, but the volume of these incidents may also indicate the “hand of God” was involved. If this is the case, then it’s possible that internal Iranian opposition groups (as opposed to exiles ) are stronger and even better organized than generally thought.

It is almost certain that Tehran’s patience is about to run out. This was evidenced by the student mob’s “conquest” of the British embassy this week. This was not spontaneous rage: It was a warning from a regime that realizes someone has declared war on it without leaving marks or fingerprints.

Sooner or later, the ayatollahs’ regime will decide to react and will order its secret intelligence and operational units to retaliate. If and when this happens, Iran will take steps to conceal its involvement in such activities. However, past experience proves that despite the caution and sophistication of the Iranian secret services, they have often failed in obscuring their fingerprints.

Read this article in Hebrew: המלחמה הקרה בין ישראל לאיראן

David Miliband: Attacking Iran would increase the risk of nuclear war

Multilateral Foreign Policy > Published by Alex Hern, December 2nd 2011 at 12:26 pm

David Miliband has strongly spoken out against the risks of sleepwalking into a war with Iran.

Writing for the Financial Times, Miliband argued (£):

Diplomacy must take the lead in preventing a major war with Iran -for that is what it would be. What is more, the regime faces at least four serious challenges of its own.

First, it is clear that sanctions, cyberwar and covert operations have impaired Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapons capability, with most estimates holding that the regime is at least two years away from achieving it. To be clear, no one has made the case such an achievement is imminent.

Second, IAEA inspectors continue to monitor key installations and operations, providing a tripwire presence able to signal any dramatic change in policy or practice by Tehran. It would be disastrous if the fallout from the Iranian storming of the British embassy included the harassment or expulsion of inspectors by the regime.

Third, Iran’s strategic influence in the region is waning. Its sole ally in the Arab world, the Syrian regime, is badly weakened and probably entering an end game. Among the Arab public, Iran’s popularity has plummeted since the highs of the 2006 Lebanon war.

Fourth, and too often neglected, are the aspirations of the Iranian people. They have often shown that they do not share the regime’s hostility to the world and instead aspire to the same kinds of open government that the youth of the Arab world are reaching for.

He was insistent that we must not underestimate the risk of a nuclear armed Iran, however (£):

We subscribe to the view that the price of a nuclear-armed Iran would be very high – unacceptably high. Iran’s capacity to destabilise the region would increase considerably. The response from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others would mean the end of the non-proliferation treaty. The chance that nuclear weapons would be used would be much closer.

Speaking to Sky News about the subject, Miliband was clear:

Iran might be “exasperating, difficult… destabilising the rest of the region” but military action would be unjustified.

If Iran develops nuclear weapons it would be unacceptable but they are at least two years away from this, he told Boulton and Co.

“Ingenious diplomacy” is key to stopping the situation escalating to war, the Labour MP added.

Miliband is just the latest in a line of experienced foreign affairs actors to speak out against the growing sabre-rattling about Iran. Hans Blix argued last month that not only would threats of war not prevent them from developing nuclear weapons, but could actively encourage them.

Blix said:

“Even threatening attack in my view is unwise, because most states that acquire nuclear weapons do so for perceived security reasons, and if they are threatened well then they will think “we’d better rush on and get them”. So if anything they need assurance that “no, you don’t need the weapon because you will not be attacked, but you will be squeezed, you will be treated harshly economically.

“The question is “can you scare a country into staying away from the weapon” and I think that’s unlikely. They did not do it with Iraq, the Israelis destroyed the Oserak reactor in 1981, but Saddam just moved on. In my view the better way is to try and reassure states that they don’t need nuclear weapons, because they will not be attacked from the outside. That goes for North Korea as well.”

Iran will know what the difference between Iraq and North Korea was, and the more we imply they should be treated like the former, the quicker they’ll try to become like the latter.

Covert nuclear war against Iran: Rights violations, profits increasing

Both covert human rights violations against Iran and military-industrial-complex war machine profits predictably increasing as Americans struggle in ‘failing economy’

Voters for Peace reports covert war against Iran has likely begun with drones, Stuxnet, blowing up nuclear facilities and assassinating or kidnapping scientists. Mark Hibbs, nuclear expert at Carnegie Endowment in Germany, reports intensity of the covert war indicates this is where U.S. and Israel are now putting their energy, big business with big profits for war contractors, all despite no evidence that Iran is a nuclear threat and increasing rights violations against Americans struggling in a “failing economy” and “war on terror.”

“If the U.S. or Israel were determined to take Iran’s nuclear installations out they wouldn’t be wasting time pinpointing individual scientists like this,” says Mark Hibbs, nuclear expert at Carnegie Endowment in Germany who points out Israel’s 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor was also preceded by assassination attempts on Iraqi scientists.
Iran claims it downed a US stealth drone deep inside its territory and US has acknowledged it ‘lost’ a drone over Afghanistan but no hostile fire was involved according to Sky News that says, “Neither of these statements appear entirely accurate, but both seem to contain some truth, and both show how the covert war between the two countries continues to rage.” 
“This is the fourth occasion the Iranians have claimed to have shot down a US drone but they have yet to show any evidence. However, it is the first time they have named the type of drone – a RQ-170 ‘Sentinel’. The Americans haven’t confirmed the type of drone they ‘lost’, but it is known that the Sentinel operates out of Kandahar in Afghanistan. 
“The RQ-170 can operate above 30,000 feet, but there is no need for such an aircraft for Afghanistan as the Taliban doesn’t have an air force or any surface to air missiles capable of reaching that high. This suggests the real mission for the Sentinel is to fly over places such as Pakistan and Iran.” (Sky News)
Human rights group Voters For Peace reports, “The stakes here are high. Yet there are few voices sounding alarmed that the U.S. flying a stealth drone over Iran is reckless.” 
“This has echoes of the May Day 1960 U-2 incident where the U.S. asserted the pilot of a ‘weather plane’ had ‘difficulties with his oxygen equipment’ and crashed. Except today’s RQ-170 drones can do just fine without Gary Powers.”
“When the Soviets recovered the U-2 Powers ejected from nearly intact, the best the U.S. could do was deplore what they imagined their Soviet counterparts in the KGB were doing to Powers in some rat hole Gulag in Siberia. At least the United States of America didn’t do THAT. Now it’s a little tougher to blur the distinction between the tortured and the torturers.
“The Powers incident set back Russian-American relations by years that culminated with the nuclear stand-off with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Depending on what one believes, a steely JFK out maneuvered the war mongers. But does anyone see steel in President Obama when it comes to reigning the war machine in? Was it his pluck and steel that earned him the Nobel?”
Michael Hirsh reports for The Atlantic on the morning of December 5, “Violent incidents between Iran and the West have been increasing. 
“Two incidents that occurred on Sunday–Iran’s claim of a shoot-down of a U.S. drone, and an explosion outside the British embassy in Bahrain–may have been unrelated. But they appear to add to growing evidence that an escalating covert war by the West is under way against Iran, and that Tehran is retaliating with greater intensity than ever.”
“Asked whether the United States, in cooperation with Israel, was now engaged in a covert war against Iran’s nuclear program that may include the Stuxnet virus, the blowing-up of facilities and the assassination or kidnapping of scientists, one recently retired U.S. official privy to up-to-date intelligence would not deny it. 
“‘It’s safe to say the Israelis are very active,’ the official said, adding about U.S. efforts: “Everything that [GOP presidential candidate] Mitt Romney said we should be doing–tough sanctions, covert action and pressuring the international community — are all of the things we are actually doing. 
“‘Though the activities are classified, a senior Obama administration official also would not deny that such a program was under way. He indicated that the U.S. was not involved in every action, referring to recent alleged explosions at Isfahan and elsewhere. But, he added: ‘I wouldn’t assume that everything we do is coordinated.” (The Atlantic)
Sky News says, “Drones, assassinations, conflict by proxy, mysterious explosions…it’s not war, but neither is it peace.”

Making a killing out of killing
High-tech non-traditional warfare is more covert and more profitable than traditional warfare.
“Just like the taxpayers of mediaeval Italian city-states, we are having our money siphoned off into the business of war,” reports the Sydney Morning Herald today.
“This year the Obama government contracted to pay Xe Services a quarter of a billion dollars for security work in Afghanistan. This is just one of many companies making its profits out of warfare.”
About President Barack Obama’s weapon of choice, drones, the Bureau of Investigative Journalism reported last month that nuclear physics and defense contractor headquartered in San Diego, California, General Atomics has probably profited most from this first decade of armed drones. The company makes two armed vehicles – Predators and Reapers used by both the UK and US forces.
“Exactly how much it profits from the industry is kept secret as the company, which is a private enterprise incorporated in Delaware, does not publish any financial information, including its annual turnover and profits.”
The recent International Atomic Energy Agency report that provoked outcry against Iran’s nuclear ambitions “contained nothing that proved that Iran was developing nuclear weapons,” reports SMH that says the war on Iran has been “completely predictable.”
“The US government spent a staggering $US687 billion on ”defence” last year. Think what could be done with that money if it were put into hospitals, schools or to pay off foreclosed mortgages.”
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About usachinanukewar

For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
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